Projected change in volume for Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps through the 21st century and sea-level equivalent (2000-2100)
The total volume of ice in mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic is projected to decline by between 13% and 36% by 2100, depending on which climate model is used. There is considerable regional variation in the amount of glacier melt expected. The smallest changes are projected for ice caps and isolated glaciers in Greenland (8%), and the largest in Svalbard (54%). These projections do not take account of the loss of icebergs from the end of the glaciers, so, if anything, the ice loss is likely to be greater. Mountain glaciers in northeastern Siberia have been projected to lose 78% of their area (different from volume) by 2070. As for snow cover, these models lack information about many of the processes important to glaciers and ice sheets, such as the way they respond to changes in ocean temperature.
Citation: AMAP, 2012. Arctic Climate Issues 2011: Changes in Arctic Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost. SWIPA 2011 Overview Report. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo. xi + 97pp
Copyright: AMAP, 2012
Data period/relevance: 2000-2100