Projected change in seasonal surface air temperature for the late 21st century (2070-2090 relative to 1960-1990)

Average surface air temperatures in the Arctic have warmed at around twice the rate of the global average over the past few decades. Multiple climate models lead us to expect that this trend will continue and the Arctic will warm faster than anywhere else in the world. Average Arctic air temperatures in autumn and winter are expected to increase by between 3 and 6 centigrades by the late 21st century (2080). The range refers to the temperature change experienced in different regions of the Arctic, including land and ocean areas. For most land areas, warming in winter is projected to be slightly less than it is over the ocean - between 2 and 3 centigrades by 2080. The greatest increases are expected in autumn and winter over areas where sea ice is being lost.